A ceasefire is an agreement that regulates the cessation of hostilities for a set period of time in a particular area, often between a state and armed non-state actors. It is a critical component of peacebuilding and conflict resolution processes.
Ceasefire agreements are negotiated in a complex political, security, economic and humanitarian context. In order to promote success, mediators should ensure that they have a full understanding of this context and how it may impact on the negotiations process. This will help them to formulate a ceasefire that is realistic and sustainable.
Nevertheless, the complexity of the conflict and the fact that ceasefires are only implemented after a prolonged period of hostilities means they remain fragile. In addition, as Guy and Heidi Burgess note, ceasefires are not without their own factions – some “conflict profiteers” benefit from the conflict itself, and seek to prolong it; while others “hardliners” seek to escalate the war, perhaps with the aim of total destruction of the opponent.
Despite this complexity, the current ceasefire agreement has some momentum behind it. This is largely due to the fact that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is eager to begin his relationship with Trump on a positive footing, and wants to get the hostages back before he takes office. In addition, the outgoing Obama administration and the incoming Trump team worked together on this issue, which has helped to build some space for American envoy Steve Witkoff to convey the US president’s messages to Netanyahu.