The border skirmish that erupted between India and China last week offers a window into Beijing’s strategic posture in a region where tension is high. It shows how nationalist sentiment and unresolved border disputes can escalate into military conflict.
The confrontation stemmed from tension over a section of the border in the remote Himalayan territory of Ladakh. It also highlighted the limits of diplomacy amid a rise in global populism that may make states feel more confident to assert their territorial claims.
Both sides accuse the other of escalating the crisis. For India, the standoff underscores Beijing’s aggressive tactics along its borders and its desire to change the status quo in the region. It’s a concern that will likely remain as Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Kazakhstan this week for the annual BRICS summit.
During the weeks before the clash erupted, Cambodia was building up its forces along the disputed boundary near an ancient temple that is claimed by both countries. It was deploying troops and weapons that were visible in satellite images. Its arsenal included BM-21 rocket launchers and artillery shells, according to Thai military intelligence documents reviewed by The New York Times.
The breakdown in the standoff is unclear, but it seems to have resulted from a convergence of political incentives. For Japarov, a resumption of patrols will bolster his image as a pragmatic leader at home, where domestic backlash over the economy and governance issues has grown. For Hun Sen, who faces rising nationalist sentiment, a resolution of the border issue could reassure supporters that he is taking steps to defend the country from external threats.