A proxy war is a global conflict in which major powers arm and direct proxies but only fight a small part of the fighting. It is a form of warfare that has become more common in the 21st century as global power competition increases. It has profound implications for the future of military operations and strategic planning and is a significant factor in many of the world’s ongoing conflicts.
The problem with proxy war is that it can quickly spiral out of control and cause more harm than good. Proxies are often corrupt, brutal, and incompetent, yet their sponsoring states tend to talk them up, giving them a vested interest in the fight that they can hard to walk away from once the spigot of cash and weapons opens. Programs and bureaucracies grow, and once a proxy’s self-interest is established it becomes harder to manage its autonomy.
Moreover, proxies are often reluctant to commit their forces to battle to the end, preferring a quick, easy victory and avoiding the risk of a costly defeat. As a result, the conflict can degenerate into an endless cycle of reprisals. It can also foster an environment of escalation without resolution, heightening the risk of broader and more devastating wars. It can further hinder efforts to reach agreements that tackle the causes of strife, and it can contribute to regional instability and a lack of global legitimacy for interventions.
As a result, the US needs to be more careful in managing its proxy wars and how it interacts with civilian populations. It must think about the potential for a proxy war when preparing its strategic plans and develop ways to counter the threat, including training a new generation of leaders that understand the complexities of this type of warfare. It should also include proxy warfare in its curricula for Joint Professional Military Education institutions.